# Description of Replication Archive 
# "Estimating Coalition Majorities during Political Campaigns based on Pre-election Polls"
# Stoetzer and Orlowski

## Data-set

- polls_btw.csv: Pre-opinion elections polls data-base elections for German Elections

## Main Analysis: Dynamic Multinomial-Dirichlet Model

- fun_dmd.R: Contain functions to fit dynamic multinomial-Dirichlet model
- fit_md_ger.R: Fits dynamic multinomial-Dirichlet model for German elections 1994-2017
- gr_res_ger_dmd.R: makes graphs and tables reported in the main text and appendix 

For replication first run fit_dmd_ger.R followed by gr_res_ger_dmd.R
